If you're interested in this exercise, get out a map of the Russian Federation. Draw a line between Grozny, the capital of Chechnya, and Sochi, soon to host the Olympics: total distance about 300 miles. You probably remember some of the more violent images of recent Grozny history: warfare, death, mayhem, suffering, and indiscriminate destruction. And all the consequent ills. Now take another look at your map. Almost directly on that line you drew, about 200 miles from Sochi, is the small city of Nalchik. It's a good bet you do not remember the tragic events that took place there. But you should. And so should Olympic security officials.
Shortly after 9 on the morning of 13 October 2005 bloody hell broke loose in Nalchik. Though, to this day, the causes, motives, and even outcomes are not totally clear: what is indisputable is that an armed force attacked federal, republican, and municipal law enforcement authorities located in the city. The attacking force numbered approximately 200 and was split into 10 groups, each with its own targets. Some of the 200 attackers were apparently from the republic and some even local residents. At least 14 civilians were killed and 115 wounded. There were thirty five deaths among the forces fighting for the city and something like 89 among the armed attackers.
Tactics like these have been used elsewhere. In Mumbai, India, on 29 November 2008, 12 coordinated shooting and bombing attacks started and stretched over the next three days. Reports suggest that 166 people were killed in the event and more than 300 wounded. In Nairobi Kenya, on 21 September 2013, a team of armed gunmen attacked the Westgate shopping mall. Reports on the outcome disagree, but there is no doubt there were many killed and wounded. The gunmen escaped.
Given what we know about the past and what we suspect about current motives, is it possible that Volgograd was just a feint? Might small teams be preparing even now for another attack? How would you connect the dots?
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