Thursday, December 12, 2013

Military Budget and Defense Highlights of Putin's 12 December Speech

Putin closed his traditional, long-winded speech to the Federal Assembly today with some remarks on the military. In addition to some of the usual boilerplate he mentioned the following items: 

1. We still have much to do in the development of modern, highly accurate combat systems. (Нам ещё многое нужно сделать по развитию современных высокоточных боевых комплексов.) You gotta imagine how badly their generals are drooling to get real Russian video of an explosive surprise party zooming down a chimney in one of those "insolent" southern regions.  Given the increasingly inexpensive technology, it remains an open question if an "insolent" area might not be first to the screen with a party clip. Of course, the violence and death are tragic, and the usefulness of "accuracy" is in question for even the best American weapons systems.

2. This year, according to plan, the number of enlisted men and contract sergeants grew to 220 thousand. With this in mind, we must think about how to create a trained and ready reserve. (В текущем году в соответствии с планами до 220 тысяч человек возросло число рядовых и сержантов-контрактников. При этом мы должны думать, как создать подготовленный мобилизационный резерв.)  Growth!... Growth!!! "We are healthy, we are strong..."   This just begs for a bit o' comparative analysis, which I unfortunately don't have the time for right now.  If that number is the total (and reading it six different ways suggests it is), the army truly has downsized (and is hopefully progressing in various areas of professionalization).  Interestingly, Putin broke out a number for enlisted personnel and contract sergeants.  Does the absence of a number for the officer corp tell us anything?  With an officer-to-fighter ration way out of synch with NATO, is this a swipe at a bloated and over-privileged group of (overwhelmingly) men largely living in the past?  BTW, later in the speech Putin thumps his chest a bit about finally solving the housing problem for the armed forces.  Perhaps this is more the result of reduced force size rather than new construction?

3. The money that we are dedicating to re-arming the army and navy, and on the modernization of the defense industrial complex, is, as you know, unprecedented. In all, the sum is 23 trillion, 23 trillion rubles. (Средства, которые мы выделяем на перевооружение армии и флота, на модернизацию оборонно-промышленного комплекса, как вы знаете, беспрецедентны. Они достигают цифры 23 триллиона вместе, 23 триллиона рублей.) Again, begs for some real comparative analysis.  What's a ruble worth?  What's a ruble worth ten years from now?  I suspect the Chinese spend more on condiments for their enlisted men.

4. We should be thinking even now, how the enterprises of our defense industrial complex will be utilized after state defense orders have been filled, after 2020. Enterprises cannot be allowed to become over-sized and unneeded. We need to strengthen our position on the world market. I ask the military-industrial commission to make proposals in this regard, so our enterprises can switch in a timely manner to the production of civilian goods in demand here and on the external market. (Уже сейчас мы должны думать, как будут загружены предприятия ОПК после выполнения гособоронзаказа, после 2020 года. Нельзя допустить, чтобы эти предприятия оказались переразмеренными и невостребованными. Нужно укреплять наши позиции на мировом рынке. И прошу Военно-промышленную комиссию представить предложения на этот счёт, чтобы наши предприятия могли своевременно переключиться на выпуск востребованной на нашем и на внешнем рынке продукции гражданского назначения.)  Switch in a timely manner?  Offering such idiocy in public reinforces my impression of Putin as a man truly out of touch with reality.

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