Putin's Pinata

Like a blindfolded kid revved on sugar wildly swinging a wiffle bat at a birthday pinata, Vladimir Putin's recent announcements give the impression of a man who badly wants something he can't comprehend.  But he's much more likely to swing himself out than hit the target; and, the other kids at the party want him to fail.

More than anything Putin wants respect. With the world's eyes about to turn to Sochi, it's time to move. Hence, he's writing checks on Russia's dime: $15 billion for Ukraine, plus gas subsidies. He's cashing in some political capital he neatly coined for himself: Khodorkhovsky heading home after 10 years in prison. How many more swings can he take at the pinata (Greenpeace, Pussy Riot,...)? If you want something from him, there will never be a better time to ask.

Many say that these moves are from strength.  (See NYT Khodorkhovsky)   Unfortunately, the media's eternal obsession with the soap opera of personal politics blinds them to the overall weakness of a system based on repression.  They misinterpret Putin's actions.  What if Putin's moves are from weakness? They can be seen as the desperate acts of a man who wants something he can't have: respect.  The action implications for US policy are totally different under the two scenarios.